Forecasting aggregate demand consideration seasonal trends, stability for repeat customers and anticipating growth of repetitive customers.

Develop and justify a forecasting method taking into consideration seasonal trends, stability for repeat customers and anticipating growth of repetitive customers. Then forecast aggregate demand for 2008 using the following sales (in thousands):

Month 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Jan 2 3 2 5 5
Feb 3 4 5 4 2
Mar 3 3 5 4 3
Apr 3 5 3 2 2
May 4 5 4 5 7
Jun 6 8 6 7 6
Jul 7 3 7 10 8
Aug 6 8 10 14 10
Sep 10 12 15 16 20
Oct 12 12 15 16 20
Nov 14 16 18 20 22
Dec 8 10 8 12 8

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... in January.

Step 2. Since seasonality repeats in every 10 months, I used a 10 point moving average (column D)

Step 3. I calculated the seasonal factors, by dividing the sales by moving average.

Step 4. At this stage I de-seasonalize the data by dividing monthly ...