Perform an exponential smoothing forecast with α=0.3 with the following data. Use the demand for the month of January for the initial forecast.
Month Demand
January 21
February 23
March 34
April 32
May 33
June 35
July 30
August 26
September 24
October ...

1) Plot the following time series to determine which of the trend models appears to fit better.
Period
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Time Series
55 57 53 49 47 39 41 33 28 20
2) The following trend line and seasonal indexes were computed from 4 weeks of daily observations. Forecast the 7 values for ne...

An engine system consists of three main components in a series, all having the same reliability. Determine the level of reliability required for each of the components if the engine is to have a reliability of 0.998.

You are given that the forecast for the current period of 70 turned out to be 6 units less than the actual demand. The forecast for the next period is 75.8. What must alpha equal (rounded to 4 decimals) if a simple exponential smoothing forecast method were being used?

Given the following data, use exponential smoothing with a=0.2 and a=0.5 to generate forecasts for periods 2 through 6. Use MAD and MSE to decide which of the two models produced a better forecast.
Period Actual Forecast
1 15 ...

Small Wonder, an amusement park, experiences seasoned attendance. It has collected two years of quarterly attendance data and made a forecast of annual attendance for the upcoming year. Compute the seasonal indexes for the four quarters and generate quarterly forecasts for the coming year, assuming ...

A manufacturer of printed circuit boards uses exponential smoothing with trend to forecast monthly demand of its product. At the end of December, the company wishes to forecast sales for January. The estimate of trend through November has been 200 additional boards sold per month. Average sales have...

Each worker's monthly caseload is determined by the number of cases received and the number of workers available during the month. There are two excel spreadsheets attached. One shows the number of cases for each month, number of staff who reported to work, and the caseload per worker for each of ...

The Bayside Fountain Hotel is adjacent to County Coliseum, a 24,000 seat arena that is home to the city's professional basketball and ice hockey team and that host a variety of concerts, trade shows and conventions throughout the year. The hotel has experienced the following occupancy rates for the ...

The manager fo the Petroco Service Station wants to forecast the demand for unleaded gasoline next month so that the proper number of gallons can be ordered from the distributor. The owner has accumulated the following data on demand for unleaded gasoline from sales during the past ten months:
...

I have tried several times and missing a step somewhere in the process.
Rosa's Italian restaurant wants to develop forecasts of daily demand for the next week. The restaurant is closed on Mondays and experiences a seasonal pattern for the other six days of the week. Mario, the manager has collect...

A manager receives a forecast for next year. Demand is projected to be 600 units for the first half of the year and 900 units for the second half. The monthly holding cost is $2 per unit, and it costs an estimated $55 to process an order.
a. Assuming that monthly demand will be level during each ...

3-25. The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Paso Robles winery in an 8-year period follows:
Year Cases of Wine
1991 270
1992 365
1993 389
1994 456
1995 358
1996 500
1997 410
1998 376
Referring to the Table above, the Holt-Winters method for forecasting with smoothing constant ...

1. Which of the following situations suggest a process that appears to be operating in a state of statistical control?
a. A control chart with a series of consecutive points that are above the center line and a series of consecutive points that are below the center line.
b. A control chart in...

In selecting an appropriate forecasting model, the following approaches are suggested:
a. perform a residual analysis.
b. measure the size of the forecasting error.
c. use the principle of parsimony.
d. all of the above.

1. The Omni Hotel in Charleston SC wants to forecast their expected occupancy rate for the next 5 years. Using the past data below, forecast the hotel's future occupancy.
Year Occupancy Rate (%)
1 82
2 77
3 76
4 ...

The Dean of the business college at Strayer University wants to forecast the number of students who will enroll in business courses at the Charleston SC campus. Historically the enrollments have been:
Year Students
1 400
2 4...

Use Excel or MegaStat to make an attractive, well-labeled time-series line chart. Adjust the Y-axis scale if necessary to show more detail (since Excel usually starts the scale at zero). If a fitted trend is called for, use Excel's option to display the equation and R2 statistic. Include printed c...

Average starting salaries for students using a placement service at a university have been steadily increasing. A study of three graduating classes indicates the following average starting salaries:
Year Actual Forecast
2002 $20,000 $20,000
2003 $22,000 $20,000
2004 ...

16. Look at the attached spreadsheet....Use excel or QM to do exponential smoothing to compute miles for weeks 2 through 12, assuming an initial forecast for week 1 of 17,000. Use alpha of 0.2. What is the forecast demand for week 5?
A. 15
B. 19
C. 25
D. 30
17. See attached spreadsheet...Wh...

Use the information given below:
Factor A
- +
Factor B - 3 7
+ 8 ?
Fill in the blank cell above using the additive model of interaction: Answer is 12. No problem with the additive model. It is the multiplic...

1000 tires sold on average each of the past few years.
the past 2 years 200 and 250 respectively in the fall season, 300 and 350 in the winter season, 150 and 165 in the spring season, and 300 and 285 in the summer season.
Projected sales next year are 1200.
What will the demand be each sea...

The manager of a company believed that her company's profits were following an exponential trend. She used Microsoft Excel to obtain a prediction equation for the logarithm (base 10) of profits:
Log10(Profits) = 2=0.3X
The data she used were from 1993 through 1998, coded 0 to 5. The forecast ...

Excel was used to obtain the following quadratic trend equation:
Sales = 100 - 10X + 15X2
The data used was form 1989 through 1998, coded 0 to 9. The forecast for 199 is_________
A. 1,225
B. 980
C. 1,500
D. 1,600

The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first 6 months of last year.
Month Complaints
January 36
February 45
March 81
April 90
May 108
June 144
Referring to the table above, if this series is smoothed using exponential smoothing with a...

(See attached file for full problem description)
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Let {Z(s), s } is a stationary process. Define
Suppose (Z(s1),....,Z(sn)) is observed at know locations {s1,....,sn}. Please find an optimal linear prediction of Z(s) based on the observations and function. How would you estimate function ...

This generic question is posed:
You have timed the rate at which participants can solve puzzles under three conditions of noise: high, medium,low. In addition, the participants are under the influence of either marijuana, caffeine, or alcohol. What kind of design do you have?
a. A 2X3 between-...